Hong Kong Racing Study Guide: Leading Trainers By ROI

Second in a series helping horseplayers learn more about betting Hong Kong racing, by international wagering authority Dick Powell. Click here for the first installment on leading riders by ROI.

The 2021-2022 Hong Kong Jockey Club season began on September 5 and will continue with racing twice a week until July 16. Unlike the jockeys where the top two, Joao Moreira and Zac Purton, won 282 of the 835 races last season (34%), the two leading trainers, Caspar Fownes and John Size, won a combined 152 races (18%).

There are no “super” trainers in Hong Kong and the table below illustrates it. These are the leading trainers and their win percentages. Only five have even double-digit win percentages and the highest is John Size at 13.98%.

 

Trainer Wins Starters Win %
Caspar Fownes 79 640 12.34%
John Size 73 522 13.98%
Frankie Lor 65 574 11.32%
Francis Lui 61 576 10.59%
Danny Shum 57 499 11.42%
Tony Cruz 51 635 8.03%
Doug Whyte 41 517 7.93%
Me Tsui 37 559 6.62%
David Hall 36 404 8.91%
Dennis Yip 34 531 6.40%
Chris So 33 511 6.46%
Ricky Yiu 33 454 7.27%
Benno Yung 32 405 7.90%
David Hayes 32 422 7.58%
Jimmy Ting 31 449 6.90%
Tony Millard 30 386 7.77%
Manfred Man 30 487 6.16%
Paul O’Sullivan 26 377 6.90%
David Ferraris 17 376 4.52%
Richard Gibson 17 249 6.83%

 

Part of this is explainable by field size. The average field size of every race in Hong Kong is about 12. So, from a random point of view, each trainer has a 1 in 12 chance of  winning or 8.33%. If the field size is 8, like it is at many American tracks, there is a 1 in 8 chance of winning or 12.5%. Winning races in Hong Kong is much more difficult, even for the leading trainers.

Takeout on win betting in Hong Kong is 17.5% so an average win payoff of $1.65 exceeds the takeout. The following are the leading trainers from the 2020-2021 season and their ROI based on a $2 win bet:

 

Trainer Wins Starters Money Earned $2 Bet/Horse ROI
Caspar Fownes 79 640 $818.80 $1,280.00 $1.28
John Size 73 522 $953.20 $1,044.00 $1.83
Frankie Lor 65 574 $1,071.20 $1,148.00 $1.87
Francis Lui 61 576 $785.70 $1,152.00 $1.36
Danny Shum 57 499 $767.90 $998.00 $1.54
Tony Cruz 51 635 $735.20 $1,270.00 $1.16
Doug Whyte 41 517 $814.40 $1,034.00 $1.58
Me Tsui 37 559 $791.60 $1,118.00 $1.42
David Hall 36 404 $602.60 $808.00 $1.49
Dennis Yip 34 531 $781.90 $1,062.00 $1.47
Chris So 33 511 $733.20 $1,022.00 $1.43
Ricky Yiu 33 454 $580.80 $908.00 $1.28
Benno Yung 32 405 $830.00 $810.00 $2.05
David Hayes 32 422 $445.40 $844.00 $1.06
Jimmy Ting 31 449 $1,087.10 $898.00 $2.42
Tony Millard 30 386 $519.60 $772.00 $1.35
Manfred Man 30 487 $713.40 $974.00 $1.46
Paul O’Sullivan 26 377 $488.60 $754.00 $1.30
David Ferraris 17 376 $409.50 $752.00 $1.09
Richard Gibson 17 249 $488.20 $498.00 $1.96

 

This tells a dramatically different story as the leading trainers do not always equal pari-mutuel success. So which trainers provide the best value? Here are the trainers listed by their ROI:

 

Trainer Wins Starters Money Earned $2 Bet/Horse ROI
Jimmy Ting 31 449 $1,087.10 $898.00 $2.42
Benno Yung 32 405 $830.00 $810.00 $2.05
Richard Gibson 17 249 $488.20 $498.00 $1.96
Frankie Lor 65 574 $1,071.20 $1,148.00 $1.87
John Size 73 522 $953.20 $1,044.00 $1.83
Doug Whyte 41 517 $814.40 $1,034.00 $1.58
Danny Shum 57 499 $767.90 $998.00 $1.54
David Hall 36 404 $602.60 $808.00 $1.49
Dennis Yip 34 531 $781.90 $1,062.00 $1.47
Manfred Man 30 487 $713.40 $974.00 $1.46
Chris So 33 511 $733.20 $1,022.00 $1.43
Me Tsui 37 559 $791.60 $1,118.00 $1.42
Francis Lui 61 576 $785.70 $1,152.00 $1.36
Tony Millard 30 386 $519.60 $772.00 $1.35
Paul O’Sullivan 26 377 $488.60 $754.00 $1.30
Caspar Fownes 79 640 $818.80 $1,280.00 $1.28
Ricky Yiu 33 454 $580.80 $908.00 $1.28
Tony Cruz 51 635 $735.20 $1,270.00 $1.16
David Ferraris 17 376 $409.50 $752.00 $1.09
David Hayes 32 422 $445.40 $844.00 $1.06

 

Some words of caution:

Jimmy Ting’s positive ROI is affected by a win that paid $359.30 but it is still a decent $1.62 without it.

Benno Yung’s positive ROI is affected by a win that paid $151.90 but it is still a decent $1.67 without it.

Frankie Lor ($1.87) and John Size ($1.83) are the only leading trainers that are beating the takeout and a couple, Caspar Fownes ($1.28) and Tony Cruz ($1.16) are near the bottom. When making your selections, make sure you are getting a decent price.

The post Hong Kong Racing Study Guide: Leading Trainers By ROI appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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