The Derby 20 Presented By NYRA Bets: Shared Belief Loss Doesn’t Hurt Honor A. P.

Tiz the Law has done nothing wrong approaching the Travers, and though this Saturday’s race is certainly not a “must-win” scenario for the Belmont Stakes winner, it will be an intriguing match-up at the Kentucky Derby distance. Unless the Barclay Tagg trainee is beaten double-digit lengths, Tiz the Law should remain the favorite on most Derby lists, including the Paulick Report’s first 2020 edition of The Derby 20.

Honor A. P. holds the second spot this week, despite his loss in last Saturday’s Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar. The race was a bit short and it wasn’t the end goal, so it shouldn’t be a setback for the John Shirreffs-trained colt on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Where did your favorite end up on the list? Be sure to click on the expandable boxes for each Derby candidate to get all the latest information in the first edition of The Derby 20!

Tiz the Law
Connections

Owner: Sackatoga Stable

Trainer: Barclay Tagg

Jockey: Manny Franco

Breeder: Twin Creeks Farm

Pedigree

Sire: Constitution

Dam: Tizfiz, by Tiznow

Sales Record: $110,000 yearling at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga New York-Bred Sale

272
Derby Points

Race Record: 5-0-1 from six starts, $1,480,300

Major Races: G1 Belmont Stakes (1st), G1 Florida Derby (1st), G3 Holy Bull (1st), G3 Kentucky Jockey Club (3rd), G1 Champagne (1st)

Next Expected Start

G1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 8

1st
Paulick Report Ranking

He’s the Belmont Stakes winner, he’s undefeated in 2020, and he looks like a model of consistency for trainer Barclay Tagg. It’s hard to bet against Tiz the Law, a colt whose running style makes him the horse to beat both in the Travers and on the first Saturday in September. Until he proves he doesn’t deserve it, he’ll be on top most Kentucky Derby lists.

Honor A. P.
Connections

Owner: C R K Stable

Trainer: John Shirreffs

Jockey: Mike Smith

Breeder: George Krikorian

Pedigree

Sire: Honor Code

Dam: Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush

Sales Record: $850,000 yearling at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select sale

140
Derby Points

Race Record: 2-3-0 from five starts, $382,200

Major Races: Shared Belief Stakes (2nd), G1 Santa Anita Derby (1st), G2 San Felipe (2nd)

Next Expected Start

Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5

2nd
Paulick Report Ranking

This big, beautiful colt has all the talent to get the job done on the first Saturday in September, but he’s a little bit lighter on experience than some of his rivals. The loss in the Shared Belief shouldn’t affect him long-term; it was an oddly-run race and the distance was a bit short for Honor A. P. to show his best. That said, Shirreffs can be sure to have Honor A. P. ready to give his best effort next out, and with Mike Smith in the saddle his chances to visit that hallowed winner’s circle at Churchill Downs are that much better.

Art Collector
Connections

Owner/Breeder: Bruce Lunsford

Trainer: Tommy Drury

Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr.

Pedigree

Sire: Bernardini

Dam: Distorted Legacy, by Distorted Humor

Sales Record: (homebred)

100
Derby Points

Race Record: 4-1-0 from eight starts, $548,475

Major Races: G2 Blue Grass Stakes

Next Expected Start

Ellis Park Derby on Aug. 9

3rd
Paulick Report Ranking

After an impressive win in the Blue Grass, this colt has continued to train well at Churchill Downs and heads into the Ellis Park Derby as his final prep. It’s not a “must-win” situation, though the nine furlongs should suit him. So long as Art Collector finishes in the top three, he’ll be ready for the Run for the Roses. On a side note, it’s hard not to root for this trainer and jockey, both of whom are underrated and getting a shot at the big dance.

King Guillermo
Connections

Owner: Victor Avila (Victoria’s Ranch)

Trainer: Juan Carlos Avila

Jockey: Samy Camacho

Breeder: Carhue Investments, Grouseridge Ltd. & Marengo Investments

Pedigree

Sire: Uncle Mo

Dam: Slow Sand, by Dixieland Band

Sales Record: $150,000 at the OBS April sale

90
Derby Points

Race Record: 2-1-1 from five starts, $340,350

Major Races: G1 Arkansas Derby (2nd), G2 Tampa Bay Derby (1st)

Next Expected Start

Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5

4th
Paulick Report Ranking

It was unclear how talented this colt might be after his Tampa Bay Derby victory, but his second-place finish to Nadal in the Arkansas Derby was impressive. The long layoff from May to September could be a concern, but he’s a lightly-made animal so there’s no reason to think it wouldn’t benefit him. King Guillermo is already at Churchill Downs getting used to the surface, and I’ll keep a close eye on his works, but as of right now it looks like he’ll be a major contender.

Uncle Chuck
Connections

Owner: Karl Watson, Mike Pegram, and Paul Weitman

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Luis Saez

Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC

Pedigree

Sire: Uncle Mo

Dam: Forest Music, by Unbridled’s Song

Sales Record: $250,000 yearling at Keeneland September

20
Derby Points

Race Record: 2-0-0 from two starts, $120,000

Major Races: Los Alamitos Derby (1st)

Next Expected Start

G1 Travers at Saratoga on Aug. 8

5th
Paulick Report Ranking

Baffert has compared this colt to Arrogate, at least in terms of his stride length. It remains to be seen whether Uncle Chuck has the talent to back up that comparison, but Saturday’s Travers matchup with Tiz the Law should answer a lot of questions. 

Ny Traffic
Connections

Owner: John Fanelli, Cash is King LLC, LC Racing and Paul Braverman

Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.

Jockey: Paco Lopez

Breeder: Brian Culnan

Pedigree

Sire: Cross Traffic

Dam: Maime Reilly, by Graeme Hall

Sales Record: $27,000 RNA at Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-year-old in training sale

110
Derby Points

Race Record: 2-3-2 from nine starts, $565,470

Major Races: G1 Haskell Stakes (2nd), G3 Matt Winn (2nd), G2 Louisiana Derby (2nd), G2 Risen Star (3rd)

Next Expected Start

Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5

6th
Paulick Report Ranking

Progressive colt showed up in a big way in the Haskell, and looked like he’d handle the extra distance of the Kentucky Derby with ease. Ny Traffic has had a good deal of racing experience, and is taking a step forward with each race. He’s tactical and gritty, so he should be able to make some noise on the first Saturday in September. 

Thousand Words
Connections

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables and Spendthrift Farm

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Abel Cedillo

Breeder: Hardacre Farm

Pedigree

Sire: Pioneerof the Nile

Dam: Pomeroy’s Pistol, by Pomeroy

Sales Record: $1,000,000 yearling at Keeneland September sale

83
Derby Points

Race Record: 4-1-0 from seven starts, $327,000

Major Races: Shared Belief Stakes (1st), G3 Los Alamitos Derby (2nd), G3 Bob Lewis Stakes (1st), G2 Los Alamitos Futurity (1st)

Next Expected Start

Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5

7th
Paulick Report Ranking

Most analysts had understandably written off this colt after a couple of sub-par performances, but after watching his workout in company with Cezanne, it was easy to see that he’d found a new groove. After the Shared Belief win, Baffert explained that Thousand Words had gotten a bit sour, but the Hall of Fame trainer seems to have gotten a better idea of what makes this colt tick. Another one to keep a close eye on in the mornings leading up to the Run for the Roses.

Authentic
Connections

Owner: Spendthrift Farm, MyRacehorse Stable, Madaket Stables LLC, and Starlight Racing

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Mike Smith

Breeder: Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds, LLC

Pedigree

Sire: Into Mischief

Dam: Flawless, by Mr. Greeley

Sales Record: $350,000 yearling at Keeneland September sale

200
Derby Points

Race Record: 4-1-0 from five starts, $1,011,200

Major Races: G1 Haskell Stakes (1st), G1 Santa Anita Derby (2nd), G2 San Felipe (1st), G3 Sham Stakes (1st)

Next Expected Start

Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5

8th
Paulick Report Ranking

I sincerely doubt this colt wants a mile and a quarter, but I doubted him in the Haskell over nine furlongs too. He’s got heart, and he’s got the tactical speed to be dangerous, but I can’t seem him winning the Kentucky Derby. Mike Smith, his regular rider, seems likely to pick Honor A. P. over Authentic for the first Saturday in September.

Sole Volante
Connections

Owner: Reeves Thoroughbred Racing and Andie Biancone

Trainer: Patrick Biancone

Jockey: Luca Panici

Breeder: Flaxman Holdings Limited

Pedigree

Sire: Karakontie

Dam: Light Blow, by Kingmambo

Sales Record: $20,000 2-year-old at OBS April sale

30
Derby Points

Race Record: 4-1-1 from seven starts, $323,310

Major Races: G2 Tampa Bay Derby (2nd), G3 Sam Davis (1st)

Next Expected Start

Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5

9th
Paulick Report Ranking

He’ll need the right trip to win the Derby, but his late-closing style could be especially dangerous when there appears to be plenty of speed signing on for the first Saturday in September. Biancone admitted that he rushed Sole Volante to the Belmont 10 days after winning an allowance race, and that he runs better fresh, so I won’t hold the Belmont sixth against him.

Country Grammer
Connections

Owner: Paul Pompa, Jr.

Trainer: Chad Brown

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Breeder: Scott Pierce and Debbie Pierce

Pedigree

Sire: Tonalist

Dam: Arabian Song, by Forestry

Sales Record: $450,000 2-year-old at OBS April sale

50
Derby Points

Race Record: 2-0-1 from five starts, $117,320

Major Races: G3 Peter Pan Stakes (1st)

Next Expected Start

G1 Travers at Saratoga on Aug. 8

10th
Paulick Report Ranking

A high spot on the list for a colt who ran 5th in the Fountain of Youth, but the distance of the Travers should be advantageous for this Chad Brown trainee. I’ll be watching him in the mornings, hoping to see a bit more from him, but he didn’t look overly taxed winning the Peter Pan.

Max Player
Connections

Owner: George Hall and SportBLX Thoroughbreds Corp.

Trainer: Linda Rice

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Breeder: K & G Stables

Pedigree

Sire: Honor Code

Dam: Fools in Love, by Not For Love

Sales Record: $150,000 RNA at Keeneland September yearling sale

40
Derby Points

Race Record: 2-1-1 from four starts, $273,500

Major Races: G1 Belmont Stakes (3rd), G3 Withers (1st)

Next Expected Start

G1 Travers at Saratoga on Aug. 8

11th
Paulick Report Ranking

He ran willingly enough in the Belmont, and all reports from the colt’s camp have been positive leading up to the Travers. Still, he’s more playable underneath the heavier favorites.

Shared Sense
Connections

Owner.Breeder: Godolphin

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Florent Geroux

Pedigree

Sire: Street Sense

Dam: Collective, by Bernardini

20
Derby Points

Race Record: 3-2-0 from eight starts, $322,112

Major Races: G3 Indiana Derby (1st)

Next Expected Start

Ellis Park Derby on Aug. 9

12th
Paulick Report Ranking

Big run at Indiana Grand, and his pedigree says he should love every inch of a mile and a quarter. The Godolphin team likely won’t enter him in the Kentucky Derby unless he proves he’s deserving of it at Ellis Park, but it should make for a good rematch with Art Collector.

Dean Martini
Connections

Owner: Raise the BAR Racing, LLC

Trainer: Tom Amoss

Jockey: Ricardo Mejias

Breeder: Brereton C. Jones & Bret Jones

Pedigree

Sire: Cairo Prince

Dam: Soundwave, by Friends Lake

Sales Record: $220,000 yearling at Keeneland September sale

20
Derby Points

Race Record: 2-4-3 from ten starts, $391,380

Major Races: G3 Ohio Derby (1st)

Next Expected Start

Ellis Park Derby on Aug. 9

13th
Paulick Report Ranking

It may have taken him a while to break his maiden, but Dean Martini has been consistently putting the pieces together ever since. He was solid in the Ohio Derby, and a good performance at Ellis could move him up if continues to show improvement.

Dr Post
Connections

Owner: St. Elias Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Joe Bravo

Breeder: Cloyce Clark

Pedigree

Sire: Quality Road

Dam: Mary Delaney, by Hennessy 

Sales Record: $400,000 yearling at Keeneland September

83
Derby Points

Race Record: 2-0-1 from three starts, $188,850

Major Races: G1 Haskell (3rd), G1 Belmont (2nd)

Next Expected Start

Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5

14th
Paulick Report Ranking

Unimpressive performance in the Haskell, and Dr Post appears to be more of a one-paced grinder than the kind of horse who can win the Kentucky Derby. Down the road, he ought to try some marathon distances, because he looks like the type to run all day long.

However, should the colt’s racing tactics change, he might be worth a second look.

Enforceable
Connections

Owner: John Oxley

Trainer: Mark Casse

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Breeder: Clearsky Farms

Pedigree

Sire: Tapit

Dam: Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union

Sales Record: $775,000 RNA at Keeneland September sale

43
Derby Points

Race Record: 2-2-2 from ten starts, $397,150

Major Races: G2 Blue Grass Stakes (4th), G2 Risen Star (2nd), G3 Lecomte (1st), G1 Breeders’ Futurity (3rd)

Next Expected Start

Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5

15th
Paulick Report Ranking

Distance should help this well-bred colt, and Casse seems happy with his recent workouts. Enforceable’s late-running style might be a detriment, but with the right draw and the right trip, anything is possible.

Modernist
Connections

Owner/Breeder: Pam and Martin Wygod

Trainer: Bill Mott

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Pedigree

Sire: Uncle Mo

Dam: Symbolic Gesture, by Bernardini

70
Derby Points

Race Record: 2-0-2 from seven starts, $417,800

Major Races: G2 Louisiana Derby (3rd), G2 Risen Star (1st)

Next Expected Start

Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5

16th
Paulick Report Ranking

Another grind-it-out type, but he was unimpressive in the Peter Pan in his most recent start. Modernist is well bred and ran well earlier in the year, but his last two starts Mott hasn’t had him in the right place.

Major Fed
Connections

Owner/Breeder: Lloyd Madison

Trainer: Greg Foley

Jockey: James Graham

Pedigree

Sire: Ghostzapper

Dam: Bobby’s Babe, by Smart Strike

38
Derby Points

Race Record: 1-2-1 from six starts, $215,600

Major Races: G3 Indiana Derby (2nd), G2 Risen Star (2nd)

Next Expected Start

Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5

17th
Paulick Report Ranking

He hasn’t gotten that top-level win yet, but Major Fed has a dedicated team behind him dedicated to his success. He will skip the Ellis Park Derby and point straight to the Kentucky Derby, and while he won’t be lower than 20-1 on Derby day, the power of the home team may propel Major Fed beyond his race record.

Caracaro
Connections

Owner: Global Thoroughbred and Top Racing, LLC

Trainer: Gustavo Delgado

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Breeder: SF Bloodstock

Pedigree

Sire: Uncle Mo

Dam: Peace Time, by War Front

Sales Record: $95,000 weanling at Keeneland November

20
Derby Points

Race Record: 1-2-0 from three starts, $53,800

Major Races: G3 Peter Pan Stakes (2nd)

Next Expected Start

G1 Travers on Aug. 8

18th
Paulick Report Ranking

This lightly-raced colt ran a big race in the Peter Pan, especially first time against winners, and could take another step forward in the Travers. One to use underneath there, and his performance will determine where I put him on the leaderboard moving forward.

Ete Indien
Connections

Owner: Linda Shanahan, Sanford Bacon, Dream With Me Stable, Inc., Horse France America, D P Racing LLC and Patrick L. Biancone Racing LLC

Trainer: Patrick Biancone

Jockey: Luca Panici

Breeder: Robert B. Tillyer & Eric Buckley

Pedigree

Sire: Summer Front

Dam: East India, by Mizzen Mast

74
Derby Points

Race Record: 3-1-1 from seven starts, $407,406

Major Races: G1 Florida Derby (3rd), G2 Fountain of Youth (1st), G3 Holy Bull (2nd)

Next Expected Start

possible for Kentucky Derby

19th
Paulick Report Ranking

He makes this list because he’s got so many Derby points, but Ete Indien suffered a setback a couple weeks ago and Biancone said he might not make it to the September race. If he does, his speed and size could make him a threat, so he has potential to move up this list with positive reports and workouts.

Anneau d’Or
Connections

Owner: Peter Redekop

Trainer: Blaine Wright

Jockey: Victor Espinoza

Breeder: Highland Yard LLC

Pedigree

Sire: Medaglia d’Oro

Dam: Walk Close, by Tapit

Sales Record: $480,000 2-year-old at OBS April sale

32
Derby Points

Race Record: 1-2-0 from six starts, $452,000

Major Races: G1 Santa Anita Derby (4th), G1 Arkansas Derby (4th), G2 Los Alamitos Futurity (2nd), G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (2nd)

Next Expected Start

Ellis Park Derby on Aug. 9

20th
Paulick Report Ranking

I really, really want to like this colt, but he keeps disappointing in the afternoons. I’m giving him one more shot at Ellis this Sunday, but he’ll have to show up like he did at Los Alamitos for me to keep supporting him toward the Kentucky Derby.

The post The Derby 20 Presented By NYRA Bets: Shared Belief Loss Doesn’t Hurt Honor A. P. appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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