Equibase Analysis: Zero Tolerance The One To Beat In Autumn Miss

This Saturday’s Grade 3, $100,000 Autumn Miss Stakes at Santa Anita Park brings together a field of eight 3-year-old fillies traversing a mile on the turf. Six of the eight have won either their most recent race or the one right before that and all eight fillies have been stakes placed at least once to date.

  • Madone is the most accomplished in terms of earnings at $367,800 with some of that earned when winning the G2 San Clemente Stakes at this mile turf trip in July.
  • Spanish Loveaffair is also a graded stakes winner, having captured the G3 Herecomesthebride Stakes in February and more recently the non-graded Pebbles Stakes last month in New York.
  • Zero Tolerance stretches out to a mile off a win in the Unzip Me Stakes over the course just 27 days ago and is tied for the most lightly raced filly in the field, having run just three times.
  • Ego Trip (IRE) is the other filly making just her fourth career start and finished third in the G2 Lake Placid Stakes in August, which was her most recent race.
  • Eddie’s New Dream finished second in the Melair Stakes on dirt in June and recently won strongly on the grass, while Freedom Flyer missed by a head in the California Oaks this past April.
  • Burgoo Alley (IRE) was third behind Zero Tolerance in the Unzip Me and also stretches out, having won at a mile on turf just before that.
  • Javanica missed by less than a length in the G3 Jimmy Durante Stakes and by the same margin in the Blue Norther Stakes last November and December, and returns from two months off following a sixth place effort in the G1 Del Mar Oaks.

I believe strongly Zero Tolerance is the one to beat in this year’s Autumn Miss Stakes, even over multiple stakes winner Madone. Zero Tolerance missed by a nose in a big effort when rallying from eighth of 10 in her career debut this past August in a sprint. Improving nicely 19 days later, she won on dirt then moving back to turf for the Unzip Me Stakes on Oct. 3 at the distance of six and one-half furlongs on turf. In that race, Zero Tolerance rallied from sixth of seven in the early stages to win going away. That effort earned her a career best 98 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure and logical improvement in only the fourth start of her career puts her at, or above, the 104 field high figures Spanish Loveaffair earned winning the Pebbles Stakes and the 104 figure Madone earned winning the San Clemente Stakes.

There is no doubt in my mind Zero Tolerance can stretch out to a mile and run a winning race, given her dam Torreadora also produced multiple stakes winner El Tormenta, who won the 2019 Grade 1, $1 million Woodbine Mile Stakes. Santa Anita leading jockey Flavien Prat was in the saddle as Zero Tolerance won her last two race and rides back and that is another reason this filly gets top billing in this situation.

Madone has won five of nine races in her careen, including two of three on the Santa Anita turf and four of eight stakes tries. Her best career effort came in July when winning the San Clemente Stakes at the distance of the Autumn Miss and earning a career-best 104 ™ figure. However, her most recent two races were some of her poorest efforts, first when fifth in the Del Mar Oaks, then when fifth in the Jockey Club Oaks Invitational last month in New York. Then again, neither of those was a mile, the distance of the San Clemente which Madone returns to. Additionally, the Del Mar Oaks was a Grade 1 race and although not yet graded, the Jockey Club Oaks is going to be a Grade 1 race in the future. As such, the drop to this G3 level and the return to a mile and to a turf course she has had success over in the past bode well for Madone regaining top form.

Honorable mention goes to Burgoo Alley (IRE) and Javanica, and I would consider both for any exacta tickets played. Burgoo Alley (IRE) won at Santa Anita in a turf sprint this past June, in her second start since importing from Ireland. She stretched out to two turns next and ran two “A” races in a row, first beaten a head with a 101 figure then winning an allowance race at a mile with a stakes quality 103 figure. She then stumbled at the start of the Unzip Me to be last of seven, rushed up to third, fell back to fifth, then re-rallied for third.

Javanica finished second in a pair of stakes last fall and winter on this circuit with big efforts then tried dirt in the Santa Anita Oaks. When that experiment failed, she moved back to grass for the Senorita Stakes at a mile on turf in May but ran into a ton of traffic trouble and was eventually moved up from sixth to fifth after another horse was disqualified for interference. Returning in July, Javanica earned a career-best 101 figure with a win then faded to fifth after leading from the start in the Del Mar Oaks. Freshened again, she has potential to run as well as she did in July and could be a contender.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Eddie’s New Dreams (86), Ego Trip (94), Freedom Flyer (88) and Spanish Loveaffair (104).

Win Contenders:
Zero Tolerance

Autumn Miss Stakes – Grade 3
Race 8 at Santa Anita
Saturday, Oct. 30 – Post Time 7 PM E.T.
One Mile on Turf
Fillies, Three Years Old
Purse: $100,000

The post Equibase Analysis: Zero Tolerance The One To Beat In Autumn Miss appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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