Breeders’ Cup Winning Traits Presented By NYRA Bets: Championship Saturday Juveniles

In the 33-year history of the Breeders’ Cup, favorites have won at a 33-percent clip. Narrow that down to the Juvenile Fillies, and the strike rate of the post-time favorite jumps to 45 percent. In Southern California, only two of the 10 race-winners were favorites.

The average winning payoff in the Juvenile Fillies is $18.43, and only 23 percent of winners paid more than $20 on a $2 bet. It is interesting to note that of the six largest payoffs in the race, three came when the race was held in Southern California (excluding those Breeders’ Cups held on synthetic surfaces).

Fifty-four percent of Juvenile Fillies winners raced on or within two lengths of the lead, while 31 percent raced between two and five lengths from the front. Closers seem to be at a slight disadvantage in the Juvenile Fillies, representing just 15 percent of winners.

In Southern California, frontrunners have won 57 percent of the runnings of the Juvenile Fillies.

In comparing fillies from the East Coast versus the West Coast, Southern California runnings of the Juvenile Fillies have shown an even distribution. Overall, the results have skewed more toward the East Coast, representing 67 percent of the winners.

The Alcibiades (6), Chandelier (7) and Frizette (10) have all produced multiple winners of the Juvenile Fillies, but the Chandelier represents the largest percentage (30) of runners going on to win the Juvenile Fillies in Southern California.

Sixty-four percent of Juvenile Fillies winners were victorious in their final prep race, while another 30 percent finished second or third.

Eight of the 33 Juvenile Fillies champions entered the starting gate undefeated, while 67 percent were winners in their first start. Only one filly has ever been victorious off just two career starts, and 70 percent of Juvenile Fillies winners made four or more starts before the Breeders’ Cup.

In Southern California only one undefeated filly has won the Juvenile Fillies, but six of 10 were winners in their final prep. Only 20 percent of Juvenile Fillies winners in SoCal entered the gate with less than four prior starts.

2017 BC Juvenile Fillies

The filly with the most experience in this year’s field is Blonde Bomber, who has made six starts in Florida and won her last two. The other two fillies with four or more starts are Piedi Bianchi and Stainless.

The winners of the Alcibiades, Chandelier and Frizette are, respectively, Heavenly Love, Moonshine Memories and Separationofpowers, giving each a historically strong chance for a Breeders’ Cup win. Separationofpowers holds the best chance, with 10 Juvenile Fillies winners exiting the Frizette.

Alluring Star, listed at 6-1 on the morning line, has made just two starts but does exit a second-place finish in the Chandelier, while 8-1 Wonder Gadot has made three starts but never against stakes company.

Bob Baffert is the only trainer in the race to have won it twice already, so Alluring Star has that in her favor. Both Mike Smith and John Velazquez have won the Juvenile Fillies twice, giving an advantage to Caledonia Road and Stainless, respectively.

Morning-line favorite Moonshine Memories has a historically strong chance for victory, and her undefeated status does nothing to take away from that

Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

Post-time favorites have done historically well in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, striking at 33 percent for a rate on par with the sum total of winning favorites in all Breeders’ Cup races. The average payoff of $16.61 supports the fact that only 27 percent of Juvenile winners paid over $20, and the highest-ever payoff was $63.20.

In 33 editions, international horses have hit the wire first four times in the Juvenile. The domestic entrants based on the East Coast have won 59 percent of Juveniles, while that distribution is exactly even when looking at Breeders’ Cups held in Southern California (excluding those on the synthetic).

Eight of the last 26 Juvenile winners were on or within two lengths of the lead, while 12 of those 26 raced between two and five lengths off the lead. Closers, more than five lengths from the front, make up the remaining six. Closers do have a slightly better historical average in Southern California, however, having won three of the last seven editions.

Twenty-four percent of the Juvenile winners exited a final prep in the Champagne, while 21 percent last ran in the FrontRunner and 18 percent in the Breeders’ Futurity.

A total of 67 percent of Juvenile winners won their final prep, and 51 percent won their first starts. In total, 33 percent of Juvenile winners entered the starting gate undefeated. In the 10 editions of the Juvenile that have been held in California, only two winners were not first in their final prep race.

Six Juvenile winners ran just twice before entering the Breeders’ Cup gate, while another 17 winners had had between three and five starts. Another 10 Juvenile winners had six or more starts before the Breeders’ Cup.

2017 BC Juvenile

Heavy favorite Bolt d’Oro is undefeated, and both his favoritism and undefeated status give him a strong chance of success based on historical runnings of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Bob Baffert has won the Juvenile three times, giving an advantage to the 6-1 Solomini. Todd Pletcher has also won the BC Juvenile twice, which should benefit 20-1 Hazit in his quest for victory.

Champagne winner Firenze Fire has a historically strong chance of victory, while Breeders’ Futurity winner Free Drop Billy’s historical chance is only slightly below that. His late-running style could also be a slight advantage in Southern California.

The most experienced colt in the field is U S Navy Flag, with 10 starts to his name and a last out win in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes. Firenze Fire and Golden Dragon have each made four starts.

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